By Jack Bernard, contributing columnist
PEACHTREE CITY, Ga. | We are a democracy in crisis, because of the views promoted by Donald Trump, Fox News and others. Trump has been indicted, multiple times. These indictments will help him to win the Republican Party nomination for president in 2024.
Anyone who does not believe that Donald Trump will be the GOP nominee does not understand the American political system. He will be the nominee for two reasons:
- The “winner take all” nature of the majority of presidential primaries, and
- His base of support and our outdated Electoral College system.
In the primary system in 40 states, a candidate winning a plurality wins control over the entire state delegation, even if he/she doesn’t get a majority of the votes from members of their party. What does that mean for the 2024 presidential election?
Trump was the desired candidate for a majority of Republicans for the last two elections (2016 and 2020). His popularity was, and still is, driven by the MAGA base for the 2024 election. He will win pluralities in almost all of the above 40 states.
No other candidates are moving to the forefront. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is sinking. None of the other announced candidates on the GOP side even get double digits in current polls. Most are really running to be Trump’s vice-presidential candidate.
As for Trump indictments, that strengthens his “outsider” appeal to his disenchanted base. After all, most are skeptical about our election system and democracy.
So, what happens when Trump wins the Republican primary? The Democrats are in for a tough fight on the issues. Further, the nation’s Electoral College, enshrined in our Constitution because of pressure by the smaller states, gives these conservative red states, where Trump’s power is centered, relatively out-of-ordinary power.
Trump will hit hard on the cultural issues as he always has. But he will also zero in on the economy and immigration, areas of weakness for Democrats.
Inflation is most important to all voters, followed by healthcare and the ability of the parties to work together. Further down the list are drug addiction, guns, crime, the deficit, and moral values in that order. But for GOP voters only, the priority is different. Inflation, the deficit, immigration, moral values, crime, drugs and schools are more important issues for Republicans versus Democrats.
Trump will win many of the smaller, non-minority-based states because of economic and social/cultural issues that will motivate GOP voters, as he did in 2016 and 2020. And the popular vote will be very close in swing states.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, nearly three million more than Trump. Trump won most white voters (58 percent). But he lost everyone else. However, Trump dominated the Electoral College because he won many of the smaller states. The Electoral vote count was 304 for Trump versus 227 for Clinton.
In 2020, Trump again lost the popular vote, by seven million. But he lost the Electoral College vote only 306 to 232.
Yet, he still won the smaller states. If he had a few more votes in key swing states, Trump would have won. Biden won Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Michigan by less than three percent each.
Trump has no morality and will do whatever is necessary to win, ethical or not.
Democrats, forget taking the high road in 2024. You must fight like hell or you can lose the 2024 presidential race.
- Have a comment? Send to: elliott@brack.net
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